Enrollment Projections Methodology

  • Forecasting enrollment requires taking several factors into consideration: 

    • Current enrollment by school level
    • Historic enrollment trends
    • Student Generation Rate
    • Future residential development projects
    • Estimation of the timeframe of new construction

    Forecasting enrollment begins with the current enrollment by schools and takes into consideration historic enrollment trends.

    A Student Generation Rate (SGR) is used to determine what impact future single family and multi-family developments will have on enrollment. The SGR is calculated using several data variable. Census data counts of school age children are compared to household counts. The percentage of school age children attending West Ada School District is then calculated using enrollment counts from West Ada and public charter schools as well as private and homeschool enrollment reports from the National Center for Education Statistics. The ratio of dwelling units by type is also used to calculate the appropriate SGR for single-family and multi-family units. The SGR used in forecasting enrollment is 0.7 students per single family and 0.1 for multi-family.

    Future residential developments are mapped and tracked across the district using ArcGIS, a geodatabase software. 

    District boundaries with developments mapped out.

     

    The SGR is applied to the number of units in approved developments to calculate future enrollment by region or attendance area. Analysis of this data shows areas of growth which helps determine future facility needs. 

    Growth areas within district boundaries depicted by red quadrants.

    In this image, the darkest red quadrants show the areas where high growth is occuring within the district's boundaries. This is calculated using the number of dwelling units in developments.